This article is in continuation of my previous insights into global seat capacity. Past issues can be found posted on my LinkedIn profile. The fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the aviation industry, and several regions remain under various lockdowns or restrictions. Therefore, I thought it would be interesting to look at how global seat capacity is trending, specifically the monthly adjustments and variances by region between the November and December filings. Currently in Q4 2021, there are still numerous travel restrictions in place worldwide that are influencing travel patterns. Because of that, there was significant global capacity adjustment done for the months of November and December.
The global November seat capacity was originally filed in October at 355.8 million seats, and was adjusted this month to 331.2 million, representing a decrease of 24.5 million seats (-6.91%). December’s adjustments follow suit, with a decrease from 393.1 million seats projected in October to 376.1 million seats filed in November, a decrease of 16.9 million seats (-4.32%). The following table shows the region-specific adjustments that have been done for the months of November and December.
Looking at the above regional trends, the most significant capacity adjustments in November have been in Australia with -20.25% and in Asia with -15.22%. The smallest changes were in North America (-0.25%), the Middle East (-0.39%) and in Central America (-0.33%), which shows that the gap between supply and demand is reducing, and demand is getting much stronger. I expect that in next month’s article, we will see fewer adjustments than we have over the past few months. Policy decisions continue to play a major role in the recovery of the aviation industry. As we have seen throughout this article series, seat capacity adjustments are being made on a monthly basis. Even though we are seeing these tactical adjustments, the pace of overall recovery is still encouraging. Further recovery and growth will be dependent upon the total population being vaccinated, health and travel restrictions, and government policies. These things are the backbone of overall economic recovery and therefore the recovery of all specific industries, especially aviation. We will continue to monitor monthly trends and will share updates next month. In the meantime, if you have any queries or want to discuss a specific subject, please feel free to connect with me. Thank you.