We all know that aviation has been one of the hardest hit industries due to COVID-19. Total passenger traffic declined by more than 60% during 2020, devastating airlines, airports, and all aviation-related organizations. But as restrictions are being lifted in many parts of the world and economies opening back up, there is cautious optimism that aviation is recovering at an accelerated pace. The summer of 2021 has been quite encouraging, with a global seat capacity for August 2021 expected to reach 371 million seats, and September projected to hit 388 million seats (data as of August 4, 2021), the highest since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. This is a growth of approximately 178% from the lowest point of COVID (May 2020). To provide more context, during pre-COVID times, the highest per month seat capacity in 2019 was during July and August at approximately 519 million seats. The true global impact of COVID started in March 2020, when seat capacity dropped to 388 million seats monthly, and then eventually in May 2020 plummeted to 139 million seats, the lowest during pandemic and a decrease of 73% compared to 2019’s peak month, August.
Since then, it has been a roller coaster ride with various waves of COVID forcing countries to slingshot between closing and opening their economies. Different national restrictions have led to specific countries and continents experiencing different rates of recover in the aviation sector.
In the graph above, it is clear that all regions, especially Europe, Asia, and North America, experienced a major decline in seats in the spring of 2020, and are now seeing a rebound. By the numbers, Europe is seeing the fastest increase; in May 2021 it had 39 million monthly seats, and in August it is expected to have 96 million seats, an increase of 147%. Within the same timeframe, South America increased 45% from approximately 10 million to 15 million, and Central America increased 35% from 1.2 million to 1.6 million. However, not every region is experience such good fortune. Australasia is still experiencing challenging times, and capacity decreased by 31% between May and August 2021, from 7.6 million seats to 5.3 million. Overall, there is a global growth trend through August and September, and the aviation industry is optimistic that this trend will continue through Q4 and into 2022 as more of the global population gets vaccinated, more borders open to international travel, and restrictions are eased and removed.